TLDR
- A major options block trade on Monday indicates institutional betting on SOL reaching $400 by February’s end, representing a potential 55% increase from current $257 levels
- The trade was structured as a bull call spread with 10,000 contracts each at $280 and $400 strike prices
- Solana has broken above key resistance levels at $240 and $250, showing renewed momentum
- Technical indicators like MACD and RSI suggest bullish sentiment in the short term
- Price is currently facing resistance at $262, with major support levels at $250 and $240
A substantial options block trade executed over-the-counter on Monday reveals strong institutional interest in Solana’s potential price movement. The trade, conducted through Deribit via the OTC network Paradigm, suggests expectations for SOL to reach $400 by the end of February 2025.
The specific trade structure involves a bull call spread with 10,000 contracts at each leg. The position includes a long position in the $280 call option and a simultaneous short position in the $400 call option, both set to expire on February 28, according to data tracked by Amberdata.
The scale of this options trade has drawn attention from market analysts, as block trades typically serve as indicators of institutional activity. The trade’s structure indicates the buyer expects SOL’s price to move beyond the $280 mark and potentially reach $400, representing a 55% increase from current levels around $257.
Greg Magadini, Amberdata’s Director of Derivatives, notes that the trade’s breakeven point sits near $300. This means the buyer needs the price to surpass this level to start seeing profits, with maximum gains achieved if SOL reaches or exceeds $400 by the expiration date.
Technical analysis supports this bullish sentiment, with SOL recently breaking above several key resistance levels. The price has successfully moved past both $240 and $250, establishing new support zones in these areas.
A notable technical development includes the breach of a bearish trend line that previously acted as resistance at $245. This breakthrough occurred on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair, based on data from Kraken exchange.
The current price action shows SOL trading comfortably above both $250 and the 100-hourly simple moving average, suggesting strengthened market position. The next immediate challenge lies at the $262 level, which represents the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the recent downward movement from $272 to $230.
Market observers point to several technical indicators supporting the bullish case. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator shows increasing momentum in the bullish zone, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) maintains its position above the crucial 50 level.
Looking at potential price targets, the market has established clear levels to watch. Beyond the immediate resistance at $262, traders are eyeing $272 as the next major hurdle. A successful break above $280 could pave the way for continued upward movement.
On the support side, the price structure appears well-maintained. Initial support rests near $250, coinciding with the 100-hourly simple moving average. Below this, $240 serves as a secondary support level, with $230 acting as a crucial defensive line for bulls.
The recent price action has shown particular strength in maintaining levels above previous resistance points. This behavior typically indicates healthy market structure and suggests sustainable price movement rather than speculative spikes.
Trading volume patterns support the recent price movements, showing increased participation during breakouts above key resistance levels. This volume confirmation adds credibility to the technical breakouts observed on the charts.
The options market activity, particularly the large block trade, provides additional context to these technical developments. The willingness of institutional players to take such sizeable positions suggests confidence in the market’s directional movement.
From a risk management perspective, traders should note that a failure to overcome the $262 resistance could trigger a retest of lower support levels. However, the established support structure at $250 and $240 provides multiple defensive layers for bulls.
The most recent price data shows SOL trading at $257, maintaining its position above key moving averages and support levels while building momentum for potential tests of higher resistance zones.
