TLDR
- SEC has acknowledged Grayscale’s filings for spot XRP and Dogecoin ETFs, starting a 240-day review period that could end with decisions by mid-October 2025
- The acknowledgment represents a shift in SEC’s approach to crypto ETFs compared to its previous stance under Gary Gensler
- Bloomberg analysts estimate 65% chance for XRP ETF and 70% chance for Dogecoin ETF approval by end of 2025
- Four other issuers – Bitwise, 21Shares, Canary Capital, and WisdomTree – have pending XRP ETF applications
- XRP’s path to approval may be complicated by ongoing SEC-Ripple legal matters, while Dogecoin’s Bitcoin-like characteristics could smooth its approval process
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has taken the first step toward potentially approving new cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by acknowledging Grayscale’s applications for spot XRP and Dogecoin ETFs on February 13, 2025.
This formal acknowledgment starts a regulatory process that will give the SEC up to 240 days to make a final decision on these applications. If the review period begins soon, as expected when the filings are published in the Federal Register, the SEC would need to make its decision by mid-October 2025.
The applications come from Grayscale, a major player in the cryptocurrency investment space. The company filed through NYSE Arca, with separate proposals submitted on January 30 for the XRP Trust and January 31 for the Dogecoin Trust.
The timing of these applications follows changes in SEC leadership that appear to have brought a new perspective on cryptocurrency investments. Under previous SEC Chair Gary Gensler, similar applications faced strong resistance, with some firms even withdrawing their proposals after receiving negative feedback.
Four other investment firms have also submitted applications for XRP ETFs. Bitwise, 21Shares, Canary Capital, and WisdomTree are now waiting for the SEC to acknowledge their proposals, showing growing interest in bringing XRP to traditional investment platforms.
Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have provided their assessment of the chances for approval. They estimate a 65% likelihood for XRP ETF approval and a 70% chance for Dogecoin ETF approval before the end of 2025.
Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett points out that while the SEC’s acknowledgment doesn’t guarantee approval, it shows the agency’s increased willingness to consider cryptocurrency investment products. This marks a change from previous years when such proposals were often dismissed without much consideration.
🚨SO, for everyone asking what this means — the SEC has *acknowledged* @Grayscale/@NYSE’s 19b-4 application to convert its $XRP Trust into an ETF.
No, it doesn’t mean automatic approval and it doesn’t even guarantee the SEC will approve it down the line.
So why is it notable?… https://t.co/GICXgobYsZ
— Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) February 13, 2025
Two Different Paths to Approval
The path to approval may differ between XRP and Dogecoin. XRP faces additional challenges due to ongoing legal matters between the SEC and Ripple Labs. While Ripple won a partial victory in August 2023 when a court ruled that XRP wasn’t a security when sold on secondary markets, the SEC has appealed this decision.
Dogecoin’s approval process might be more straightforward. The cryptocurrency shares many features with Bitcoin, which already has SEC-approved ETF products. Additionally, the SEC hasn’t classified Dogecoin as a security, removing one potential roadblock to approval.
The review process will follow standard SEC procedures. After the applications are published in the Federal Register, the agency can take up to 240 days to make its final decision. During this time, the SEC will examine various aspects of the proposals, including market manipulation risks and investor protection measures.
NYSE Arca’s involvement adds weight to the applications. As one of the largest stock exchanges in the world, its willingness to list these potential ETFs suggests confidence in the products’ market readiness.
The applications come during a time of increased acceptance of cryptocurrency investments. The financial industry has shown growing interest in offering crypto-related products to traditional investors through regulated channels.
Other cryptocurrency ETF applications are also under review. The SEC has acknowledged applications for Litecoin and Solana ETFs in recent weeks, showing a broader consideration of various digital assets for investment products.
Bloomberg analysts have given high odds for approval of other crypto ETFs as well. They predict a 90% chance of Litecoin ETF approval before the end of the year, suggesting growing optimism about the SEC’s openness to cryptocurrency investment products.
The 240-day review period officially begins when the applications are published in the Federal Register, which typically happens within days of SEC acknowledgment.
